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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.