🔗 Share this article

Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.