Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday murders each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. However, security analysts have warned that homicide figures may not indicate better national safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also problematic because it may hide days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.